北大匯豐智庫報告顯示：中國2021年全年GDP增長率預計達8%

By PR Newswire on 07 Jan 2022

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深圳2022年1月7日 /美通社/ -- 北大匯豐智庫(The PHBS Think Tank)最近發佈的一項報告顯示，中國2021年全年GDP增長率預計為8%，第四季度GDP增長率預計為3.7%。報告稱，儘管中國是2020年唯一實現增長的主要經濟體，但2021年擴張面臨多重挑戰，實體經濟依然低迷。

北大匯豐智庫認為，第四季度中國實體經濟下行壓力依然較大，消費和投資均表現疲弱，基建和房地產投資明顯下滑，CPI面臨上漲壓力。部分上游原材料價格仍處於高位，並且上游價格上漲開始傳導至中下游。

報告認為，2022年中國經濟發展面臨需求收縮、供給衝擊、預期轉弱三重壓力，全年GDP預計增長5.0%。房地產市場和消費的放緩預計將繼續成為中國這個世界第二大經濟體增長的不利因素。根據北大匯豐智庫DSGE模型，如果房地產行業投資下滑10%，將拉低GDP增長2.1個百分點，將影響房地產和建築業就業約685萬人。